Sat. Sep 23rd, 2023
    Week 3 Fantasy Football Defense Rankings and BOD Formula

    After Week 2 of the NFL season, we have gathered more data to analyze the performance of various defenses and refine our rankings. With a 50% success rate in the top 10 defenses of Week 2, we are making progress in assessing the risk associated with choosing a defense early in the season.

    One lesson we have learned is not to underestimate a defense’s performance in Week 1. The Giants defense was a disappointment, and it was a mistake to overlook their struggles. This serves as a reminder that we shouldn’t overrate a defense just because they are facing a weak opponent. Whether it’s the Cardinals, the Bears, or any other team, a bad defense will perform poorly regardless.

    As the season progresses, we will inevitably make some incorrect predictions. However, if we can learn from those mistakes and make adjustments, our fantasy teams will become stronger as we approach the end of the season.

    BOD Formula and Philosophy

    The BOD (Best of Defenses) formula determines the best fantasy defenses based on various factors such as pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurry rate, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in a score, and yards per play. It’s important to note that BOD rankings should not be treated as weekly rankings. Matchups, injuries, weather conditions, and other variables may affect a defense’s ranking for a given week. This column provides an explanation of the rankings, taking into account the BOD ranking, opponent, and other relevant factors.

    In Week 3, the Dallas defense is ranked number one, facing the Cardinals who have struggled offensively. The 49ers and Eagles defenses are also in good spots, with the 49ers expected to have a solid game against a depleted Giants offense, and the Eagles facing a Bucs offense that has had success against weak defenses. The BOD formula shows that these teams have performed well in various categories, making them favorable options for fantasy owners.

    Regarding the accuracy of season-long predictions, so far, 12 out of 20 (60%) top 10 defenses have been correctly predicted. While it would be ideal to accurately predict the number one defense each week, having a defense among the top 10 is still a successful outcome.

    As the season progresses, we will continue to track the performance of defenses and update the rankings accordingly. It is important to remember that it may take a few more weeks of data to identify the most reliable defenses and exploitable offenses. In the meantime, prioritize defenses with a proven track record, strong talent, or facing weak opponents to minimize risk.

    Sources: None