According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States is projected to produce a significant amount of crude oil in the coming years. In 2023, crude oil production is expected to average 12.78 million barrels per day, and this number is forecasted to increase to 13.16 million barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA’s report also breaks down the production on a quarterly basis. In the third and fourth quarters of 2023, crude oil output is projected to average 12.86 million barrels per day and 12.94 million barrels per day, respectively. These numbers are expected to rise to 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 13.09 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.15 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and finally peak at 13.36 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The report states that in 2023, the Lower 48 states (excluding the Gulf of Mexico) will produce 10.51 million barrels per day, while the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.85 million barrels per day. Alaska is projected to produce 0.43 million barrels per day. The following year, the Lower 48 is expected to produce 10.85 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska 0.41 million barrels per day.
The EIA’s report also includes data on previous forecasts. In the August 2023 report, the EIA predicted that US crude oil production would be slightly lower in 2023 and 2024. However, the new projections show an increase in production levels.
The EIA also provides insights into global liquid fuels production. It forecasts a growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 and an additional 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. The main driver of this growth is non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
These projections highlight the significant role that US crude oil production plays in global supply. The EIA expects Russia’s production to decrease slightly this year but remain stable in 2024. Meanwhile, OPEC’s crude oil production is projected to decline in 2023 and then increase slightly in 2024.
If these predictions hold true, it will mark a substantial increase in US crude oil production. The historic data available from the EIA shows that the highest average production recorded was in 2019 at 12.311 million barrels per day.
– US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023