A recent analysis by Rethink Energy suggests that perovskite solar is set to become a major player in global photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing. By the end of this decade, perovskite solar is predicted to account for 85% of the industry’s output, with close to 1 terawatt (TW) of production each year.
Perovskite has been a focus of solar research due to its potential for cost reduction and low-temperature fabrication. The efficiency rate of perovskite solar cells has increased from below 4% to over 25% in just a decade. However, concerns about stability and durability have hindered its commercialization.
Rethink Energy’s forecast, titled “Global Perovskites Forecast 2023-2040,” states that it will take another two to three years to overcome these hurdles and transition perovskite solar into a viable force in the industry. By the second part of this decade, progress is expected to accelerate rapidly.
The analysis predicts that global perovskite manufacturing output will surpass 2 gigawatts (GW) in 2026 and escalate to 10GW in 2027, 100GW by 2030, and eventually reach around 1TW per year by 2040. Rethink Energy further estimates that over 90% of solar manufacturing by 2040 will involve perovskite technology.
China is poised to dominate the perovskite solar sector, with companies such as Microquanta, GCL Perovskite, Utmolight, and Oxford PV commissioning 100MW pilot lines. The report also identifies 42 new and upcoming perovskite manufacturers.
One significant development is that mainstream solar manufacturers are now committing to perovskites. First Solar and GCL System Integration have acquired and established perovskite subsidiaries, while LONGi and Q Cells have achieved breakthrough results and made substantial investments in perovskite production lines.