According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg, the demand for gasoline and diesel has already peaked in the United States and Europe, and is expected to peak in China by 2024 and in India in the 2030s. Bloomberg predicts that global demand for road fuel will continue to grow for only four more years, reaching its peak in 2027 at 49 million barrels per day, before entering a terminal decline. The main factors contributing to this decline are the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), improvements in fuel efficiency, and the popularity of shared mobility.
Bloomberg estimates that by 2040, EVs will displace a staggering 20 million barrels per day in oil demand, a substantial increase from the current 2 million barrels per day. The shift towards EVs is expected to have significant implications for the oil and gas industry. Legacy automakers are facing declining total vehicle sales, despite the growing sales of EVs. General Motors, for example, plans to produce around 400,000 electric vehicles by 2024, with annual EV production in North America expected to exceed one million by 2025. This increased competition in the EV market poses a threat to Tesla’s dominant market share.
While there have been various predictions about the impact of EVs on oil demand, estimates vary widely. Stanford University economist Tony Seba has famously declared that EVs will obliterate the global oil industry by 2030, and Bloomberg itself predicted a global oil crisis triggered by EVs in 2016. However, the reality is likely to be less severe. Currently, EVs are estimated to be displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil demand per day, which accounts for 3% of total road fuel demand. It is clear that the rapid adoption of EVs will have an impact on oil demand, but the extent of this impact is still subject to speculation.
In conclusion, Bloomberg’s analysis suggests that peak oil demand will occur in 2027, driven by the increasing popularity of EVs, improvements in fuel efficiency, and shared mobility. This shift towards EVs is expected to have implications for the oil and gas industry, with legacy automakers facing increasing competition. However, the exact impact of EVs on oil demand remains uncertain and is subject to varying estimates.
– Bloomberg Predicts Peak Oil Demand In 2027, OilPrice.com