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Background of EU targets 

 

In 1997, the European Union started to set ambitious targets for generating renewable energy. The Commission stated that renewable sources such as solar, wind, hydro and biomass should constitute 12 percent of the total European energy consumption by 2010. In 2001 this statement was augmented by a new requirement that 22 percent of electricity generation in 2010 should be "green". More and more targets were added as time went on. For instance, the Commission introduced a desire to have 2 percent biofuels (for road transport) in 2005, increasing to a mandated level of 5.75 percent in 2010 (for more information, see the review on biofuels). In October 2005 the European Parliament voted in favour of a proposal that sets a renewable energy target for 2020: 20% of total primary energy consumption in Europe should be renewable. This goal has not yet been adopted by either the European Commission or the Council of Ministers.

 

Determining the realism of the targets 

 

These targets sound ambitious. This review will expose them to a reality check. The main area of focus is green electricity, which is targeted to grow to 22% of total electricity by 2010. For this purpose, we look at the current market share of alternative sources in the power generation mix in a number of different EU member states, and compare this to the national target. In addition, we use the results of a recent feasibility study funded by the European Commission. This FORRES 2020 report assesses the progress in the different countries towards their respective targets for 2010 and 2020. The study estimates the speed of penetration of renewables under two scenarios. The first scenario, Business as Usual, assumes that countries will continue their current policies, including proposed future measures. EnergyPortal feels that this is in fact an optimistic view of the world, and therefore the scenario title may be somewhat misleading. The second scenario, Policy Scenario, assumes that countries will adopt those policies that have proven to be most effective in the past ("best practice"). Moreover, the current administrative barriers for alternative energy will be removed.

The FORRES report estimates the total generation of electricity from renewable sources in 2010 and 2020, expressed in TWh. To make this research comparable with the EU targets, we need an estimate of the total electricity generation including conventional power. A prediction from the European Directorate for Energy and Transport, called European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030, provides these numbers. They are available from the Directorate's website. Using this information, we calculate the implied market shares of green electricity based on the FORRES report in 2010 and 2020. The table below presents the results for 2010.

 

NB: Renewable energy includes hydropower.
NB: Addition errors due to rounding.

Results 

 

The results show that many countries will not reach their 2010 targets in the Business as Usual scenario. The main deficits in percentage terms, in Austria and Slovak Republic, should be interpreted with care. The unpredictability of the weather - specifically, rainfall - greatly impacts on the generation of hydropower. Moreover, the EU prediction for total electricity generation seems to be on the high side. We do emphasise that countries with a very high share of hydropower (e.g., Austria) are likely to experience decreases in the market share of hydro. The main explanation is that in most of these countries, the potential for large-scale hydro has been largely exploited. This means that additional hydropower generation will be difficult to realize, while total electricity generation and consumption will continue to increase.

The most interesting countries are the largest markets for electricity in Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Currently, only Germany seems to exceed its target. Germany has adopted several aggressive policies to promote renewable energy in the last few years and has the largest installed wind capacity in Europe. The country now wants to move from onshore wind turbines to large offshore wind farms [link to wind review]. It is also famous for its solar subsidies, which have boosted the installation of solar panels. The installed solar capacity is one of the largest in the world (together with Japan and California), although total solar generation as a percentage of total electricity remains negligible (more info in this review on solar energy). Besides Germany, there has been increased policy attention for renewable energy in the UK since Tony Blair has put climate change high on his political agenda. The country is well on its way to reach its target of 10% green electricity in 2010.

In contrast, France, Italy and Spain are lagging behind and will most probably face serious difficulties to meet their targets. That said, Spain faces a relatively high goal and has been one of the primary markets for new renewable energy projects in recent years. This proves that meeting the target is partly a political objective, and does not necessarily reveal how well a certain country is doing in terms of new investments and policies.

The (even) more optimistic Policy Scenario sketches a different view of the world. In this scenario, the above-mentioned five key countries will all meet their targets. Some of them, most prominently Germany and Spain, will exceed their goals substantially. Unfortunately, it is fair to comment that the Policy Scenario is not a very realistic one given current circumstances. Removing administrative burdens and adopting new best-practice regulation does not match the actual observed government activity, with the possible exceptions of Germany, Spain and the UK.

Denmark and the Netherlands, two countries that are publicly perceived as being suitable for wind energy, have some common patterns but also important differences. While both countries will likely meet or exceed their targets, the share of wind energy is much larger in Denmark than in the Netherlands. Both countries are currently increasing their wind energy resources by constructing offshore wind farms in the North Sea. Construction activities for the first Dutch offshore wind farm off the coast of Egmond aan Zee has started in the spring of 2006 [link to Egmond review]. A second wind park will appear soon close to IJmuiden. In Denmark, there are similar plans for offshore wind which are described in more detail in the offshore wind review.

A couple of years ago, energy consultant Ecofys published a similar study titled Pretir - Implementation of Renewable Energy in the European Union until 2010. This report predicted that not a single country would meet its target. This implies that things have changed as government's attitudes to renewable energy became more favourable in recent years. Although many countries may not fully realise their objective, the deficits are smaller than experts projected a few years ago. The big question that remains is whether the targets themselves are aggressive enough to really make a difference in the desired transition towards a more sustainable energy system. If the targets (for green electricity, but also for biofuels) are fully met, still only 10% of the European total primary energy will be renewable. Our energy system will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, at least for the foreseeable future. The hope is that the increasing shares of renewable energy, which may appear small in absolute terms, will push technology ahead and reduce costs such that it enables a more rapid penetration of renewables in the decades ahead.