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"The least ambitious options on the table would result in global emissions 20% above present by 2020 and with even the best options on the table GHG emissions would still be rising above present levels by 2020" said Dr Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics. "The best proposals on the table are only half way to what the science indicates are the emission limits in 2020 that are needed for a good chance of limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. The best proposals give about 9 billion tonnes, whereas at least 13-17 billion tonnes of reductions are needed." said Dr (h.c.) Bill Hare of Climate Analytics.
"There are a wide range of options for countries to reduce global emissions further than the best of what is currently proposed and to bridge the gap of 4 to 8 billion tonnes that is needed to reach a safer emissions level" said Dr Niklas Höhne of Ecofys.
With present policies Climate Action Tracker projects total GHG emissions in 2020 to be around 57 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent per year from all sources (business as usual). The low ambition end of the proposals on the table less than five days before the deadline for agreement deliver a reduction of only 2 billion tonnes. The strongest proposals, which are nearly all conditional on a strong Copenhagen agreement, with financial support for developing countries, would reduce up to a further 7 billion tonnes.
In ten years from now global emissions will need to be below 40-44 billion tonnes per year (i.e. below current levels of 46 billion tonnes per year, 2008) to have more than an even chance of limiting warming to 2°C, as called for by the major emitters globally, or ultimately to below 1.5°C by 2100 as put forward by 100 developing countries, including the Small Island States and Least Developed Countries as essential for their survival.
Provided that all of most ambitious measures on the table now are agreed, the required additional reductions of 4 to 8 billion tonnes could be reached for example by any combination of:
- Developed countries as a group agreeing to increase ambition to a 30% reduction below 1990 in 2020 (from currently maximum of 19% without forestry credits) - 2 billion tonnes; Increasing this to 40-45% below 1990 level in 2020 would reduce a further 2-3 billion tonnes.
- Developing countries as a group to reduce to 30% below their stated business as usual emissions in 2020 - 4.5 billion tonnes. The resulting emission level would be sufficient to be in the range consistent with IPCC and would require financial and technical support from developed countries.
- Halt deforestation by 2020 - 2 billion tonnes. Brazil and Indonesia together have already announced plans to reduce deforestation emissions, which globally represent about 40 to 50% reductions from recent levels by 2020 (or about the same from estimated 1990 deforestation emissions). This would also need financial and technical support from developed countries.
- Reducing international aviation and marine (shipping) CO2 emissions, which are currently uncontrolled and expected to grow fast, to half of the expected levels in 2020 - 1 billion tonnes.
- Removing the crediting for forestry and other land-use management activities would reduce allowed developed country emissions by - 1 billion tonnes/year (these credits add to the emissions allowed by countries).
The developed country industrial emission reductions targets as a whole are estimated to be 11-19% below 1990 levels of GHG gases (excluding forestry and land use change emissions) by 2020. However the proposed forestry credits these countries want would degrade this by about 5% points. This would bring the effective reductions in industrial GHG emissions to about 6-14% below 1990 levels by 2020. The low reduction target (6%) is based on unconditional targets for most countries and the highest reduction target (14%) is linked by most countries to a strong agreement in Copenhagen. Around 25-40% reductions by industrialized countries by 2020 from 1990 GHG emissions levels are described as necessary by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Currently projected emissions for the 2008-2012 period by Annex I countries as a whole are less than their aggregate targets (allowed emissions) under the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period (2008-2012). Under Kyoto Protocol rules, surplus 'assigned amount units' (AAUs - allowed emissions) from this period may be carried over to subsequent commitment periods and hence be used to increase effective emissions allowances after 2012. The total amount of surplus AAUs is large enough to allow the Annex I countries as a group to follow a business-as-usual emission pathway until after 2020 (longer after 2020 for the lowest end of the Copenhagen reduction proposals), while still complying with the currently announced reduction targets. This implies that overall emissions of the developed countries would be only 3% below 1990 levels by 2020. Given these currently existing rules and provisions of the Kyoto Protocol, we have assumed that all surplus AAUs would ultimately be emitted to the atmosphere in our climate model projections. Once these are exhausted (shortly after 2020), Annex I countries' emissions assumed to revert from their business-as-usual projection to the allowed emission reduction pathway, including the assumed forest credits. If the amount of surplus AAUs from the first and/or subsequent commitment periods were to be limited as part of a new agreement on mitigating global warming, we will include that in an update of our analysis. However, we have not included these surplus AAUs in the reduction levels that may be reached above, opting instead for a direct estimate of current proposals.
The "Climate Action Tracker", www.climateactiontracker.org, is a science based assessment by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that provides regularly updated information on countries' reduction proposals.
The Climate Action Tracker reveals major differences between the ambition levels of countries when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the lead are the Maldives and Costa Rica, which have proposed to become climate-neutral by around 2020. At the high end of the scale are Norway, Japan and Brazil, which are proposing to reduce their emissions significantly. In the "medium" range are developing countries such as India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea, who propose to reduce the growth of their emissions by the 2020s. The EU is a special case, in that its unconditional commitment is rated "inadequate". However, if it's 30% reduction target were to be adopted, the EU would move into the "medium" range and very close to "sufficient". China has moved down a category, because it's recently announced target falls short of the ambition level that we had expected from the implementation of the current national policies. Between the middle and the bottom of the scale is the United States, whose recently proposed actions are "inadequate", i.e. they do not fall within the range that is needed to keep global warming within lower limits. At the very bottom end of the scale are countries that have yet to propose substantial action beyond "business as usual". These include Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
Source: Ecofys press release
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